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Jay Gear

Weather by Tim Kelley

1/15/2021

Who’s ready to get pasted!

A new kind of paste, not that fog and drizzle paste of the last couple of days, sorry about that!

No this is the kind of pasting we like. The kind that sticks to rocks and roots, burying them under a cement-like encasement - hopefully for the rest of the winter.

The wicked inversion cloud of the last few days is turning over and into a snow cloud beginning before sunup Saturday. And it may be snowing for the most part right through Martin Luther King Day Monday.  We may have a day off next week, but it looks like we’re going to get snow at least every other day.  And my goal of 25 inches in a week - from two weeks ago - will be realized this time!

The storm that caused so much damage in the Pacific Northwest, evolving into a blizzard for the central Plains, is slowing down and stalling over Ohio as of this writing Friday afternoon.

However, it is spawning a new low-pressure system, or several new low-pressure systems near New York City, tracking northward right over Jay Peak Resort late Saturday and early Sunday.

On the front side we have strong wind from the southeast to start the day Saturday with snow perhaps mixing with sleet or rain for a short time. It may be raining in Troy and snowing on the mountain at lunch time.

Wind could be an issue to start the day, but late in the day the wind may actually go calm, but probably after the lifts are done for the afternoon.

Following a relatively calm evening, the wind picks back up - from the west late Saturday night or first thing Sunday.

The center of a strong low-pressure system will be right over us Sunday morning, perhaps with some light snow or freezing drizzle, before much colder air starts to come in during the day Sunday and our upslope snow commences.

In this day and age of weather forecasts changing every six hours, it’s a challenge being a weatherman who posts one or two times a week. The forecast gets stale very quickly.

I’ve seen the numbers go up and come down several times since the write-up I did Tuesday.. Well I’m sticking with the 12 inches first forecast here, when we combine the two days, and then Martin Luther King day we should add a few more inches.

Let’s go for 5 inches of dense snow, the pasting, during the day Saturday. Add another seven by Sunday evening.

Then it’s all frosting on top with an intermittent Jay cloud most of next week.

In the cards also, perhaps a wave on an arctic front, those are serious snow generators, later Tuesday and Wednesday. That’s the kind of system that can drop 10 inches of snow with a liquid equivalent of about .1 inch.

Blower pow, if anything, is in the forecast every other day next week.

What can go wrong? Up the road at the school formerly known as Lyndon State College we have an expression: “The Hell Hole Effect.”

In a situation like this weekend, wind from the southeast causes upslope snow to be wrung out over the White Mountains and the Presidential Range of New Hampshire.

The downsloping on the backside creates a shadow effect with very little snow from Littleton New Hampshire to Burke Vermont.

Hopefully that’s where it stops, and we are not getting much of that HHE.

Either way, the upslope snow is almost guaranteed for Sunday, along with wind hold issues by afternoon.

This is getting pretty long, try and be in place before the sun comes up on Saturday for the best travel.

Other than that, Saturday evening is probably better for travel than Sunday.

We’ll talk again Tuesday.

-Tim