Tim Kelley is back for winter 25+26 with his thorough, entertaining, and exciting weather reports. Watch this space for news about incoming weather and snow.
December 16th, 2025
"Tuesdays are good if you can get them."
We started that mantra last winter, when we were having an unprecedented stretch of days in a row with snow. And it seemed like the wind always went away on a Tuesday. At least that’s the way I recall it in my rearview mirror.
Writing this on midday Tuesday Dec 16, it’s been snowing for the most part of the last eight days. The sun came out a few times. But every day has had at least a little bit of snow. And I think if we add it all up, we’ve had about 4 feet of snow in the last week.
And it’s been so cold it’s just fluff.
Out in the backcountry you sink down to your waist.
Makes for a challenging recovery if you go down, especially if a ski goes awol.
Is the powder too deep?
Do we need a new stronger base layer somewhere in there?
Those base layers that we built up in October and November with that cycle when it snowed a bunch of days then rained a little bit. That old crust layer is way down there now.
So let’s do that again, a little rain to tamp it down...
What!? No, you don’t want any rain.
It has to rain again at some point, and it would be great if we can get it out of the way before our Christmas vacation.
How is Friday for everybody? Good, we’re going get one day with rain ~ Friday.
Until then though we are going to keep our days in a row of snow going.
It snowed lightly all day Monday into early Tuesday.
Then the sun came back out for a few minutes, with light wind ~ a glorious day!
Now the next front is racing right at us.
It’s a warm front, with temperatures actually going up at the top of the mountain overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. A front presses south with snow returning as the temperature hovers near freezing with increasing wind from the west.
The Jay Cloud kicks in with a couple inches by the last chair, and 6 inches by Thursday morning.
Thursday starts cold and dry, but a serious change is on the way as a Powerhouse storm plows into Ontario. Wind will pick up from the south with temperatures jumping up to 40° and some rain possible by 4pm.
And here comes a rough ride into Friday.
We’re going have temperatures above freezing from about 9am Thursday (it gets warmer up top first on Thursday) through about 2 PM Friday. The temperature is in the 40s at all levels of the mountain. Wind from the south late Thursday will be gusting 40 to 50 miles an hour.
As the low-pressure center tracks just to our north, deepening rapidly it may have a little eye-like feature allowing for the wind ~ maybe going light ~ for a short time first thing Friday. Friday starts wet, and turns white in the afternoon.
We have Arctic front number five for the month blasting in during the evening. Wind from the north will ramp back up ~ gusting past 55 mph Friday evening. Snow is going to become heavy, with this next Arctic front.
The arctic front will be departing Saturday morning, but the Jay Cloud should be lingering.
Probably about 14 inches of snow Friday night.
Saturday we likely start off snowing and blowing with wind hold issues possible.
Saturday afternoon the wind should decrease briefly, before increasing from the southwest in the afternoon and it starts to snow again! The more I think about it, we probably won’t even stop snowing on Saturday. But it should snow harder again at night. That is a warm front. Likely another 5" for Sunday morning when we may be actually back up to near freezing.
A nice window of not too cold and windy may be timed perfectly for comfortable Sunday skiing and riding.
Then yet another wave on the arctic front goes just to our north at night with another push of arctic air Sunday night into Monday morning.
Probably another foot of snow by Monday morning. A windy cold start Monday with snow continuing. Another 8 inches.
The next front would be due here on Tuesday, with more snow, and perhaps another Arctic surge a couple of days before Christmas.
All this is a result of these powerful storms coming in one after another off the Pacific Ocean and racing mostly across Canada, where it's coast to coast frigid in northern Canada. That’s usually a very warm pattern for us. But this is a very unusual winter.
It’s going to be one of the warmest Christmases on record across the central United States. But not here. We may have another warm intrusion around the holiday. But if it happens, it looks like it would be brief.
It’s a weather pattern, not for the faint of heart.
But you are raised Jay!.
We can do this!
Rock ‘n’ roll!
We’ll talk again Friday.
TK
