Tim Kelley is back for winter 25+26 with his thorough, entertaining, and exciting weather reports. Watch this space for news about incoming weather and snow.
*As always, TK has the brightest outlook on upcoming snow, please check our other reporting outlets for upcoming forecasts*
We have plenty to be thankful for!
And we're not just talking about this unbelievable weather, but the community we have here at Jay Peak.
Of course, this historic early season pattern is something to behold. And be Thankful for!
We’re getting a little dose of reality with a minor warm-up and some real raindrops for a few hours pre-Thanksgiving.
It’s a very exciting weather pattern though, with storms coming off the Pacific into Western North America from Canada to south California. Where they come ashore, and at the same time what goes on in eastern Canada plays a huge role in how it plays out here at Jay Peak.
That was a great short wave with several inches of snow on Sunday night Monday. We had some more powder for those that went looking, Monday night's cold perfected the snow layers with drier air ~ preserving the texture ~ type weather.
A warm front is racing at us during the day Tuesday with another one of those brief damp, mild interludes. Those interludes that we’ve had between snow cycles have really stabilized and strengthened our snowpack, like no other Thanksgiving in recent memory, and beyond. So this next batch of temperatures near 40° with maybe a third of an inch of rain Tuesday night will calm down Wednesday with a lot of fog and some drizzle before the next cold front gets here at night. Strong low-pressure tracks to our north at that point with a new batch of cold air invading for all of Thanksgiving day and into the beginning of the weekend.
It will also be generating a huge plume of lake effect snow that will enhance the developing Jay Cloud on beginning Thanksgiving day, into Friday and Saturday.
First chair on Friday should be pretty special with snow falling and hopefully a brief lull in the otherwise gusty wind. Probably 4 or 5 inches from Thanksgiving pie time to first chair for the day of the devoted Friday.
That low pressure system north of us is going slow down and tap some Arctic air, so regardless of the fact that it’s getting to be a drier air mass, we have the assistance of the Great Lakes and the world renowned Jay cloud. That keeps the snow pounding all Friday into the start of the weekend with probably another 15” by first chair Saturday. The wind will have really scoured and drifted that snow. Some historic lee-side snow depths no doubt.
It’ll be a challenge though with the wind and the chill by late Friday into early Saturday. It’s rivaling midwinter cold with temperatures in the teens and wind gusting past 35 mph. Wind hold may introduce itself late Friday into early Saturday. But the strongest wind is not going to last all weekend. The air is going to turn around as another powerful system comes up through the middle of the nation with more precipitation, likely getting here before the weekend concludes. The tendency in the long range guidance has been for continuation of this abnormally, snowy and cold pattern into December.
After a quiet start on Sunday morning with leftover powder and tremendous groomers, the next weather system is racing at us with wind increasing from the south by afternoon the clouds fill in and it starts to snow again. It’s a tough call how far north the warm front gets, there’s a chance that we are warm enough for some raindrops Sunday evening before a new cold air comes in on Monday.
At that point a front is going to stall near, or just south of us, with waves of energy, that should continue the cycles of snow and cold into the first week of December.
A highly favorable pattern indeed!
So much to be thankful for!
Enjoy the holiday.
We’ll talk again on Friday.
TK
