Tim Kelley is back for winter 25+26 with his thorough, entertaining, and exciting weather reports. Watch this space for news about incoming weather and snow.
This is more like it ~ A snowy weekend!
Our crazy up and down temperature pattern ~ bounced down ~ just in time for the weekend.
The amazing Wednesday- Thursday temperature swing generated a couple of inches of snow for our early Friday, then we had some sunshine, and now more snow, setting the stage for a nice weekend here at Jay Peak Resort.
I’m not sure we’re getting enough powder to officially call it a powder weekend. But it certainly wears a much better look and feel than damp windy raindrops a few days ago.
The drainages are icing up again. Mountain Ops is out there working hard to groom in the snow as it falls on our Friday night into early Saturday.
This storm is a remnant of the blizzard that went from Washington state to Michigan in the last three days. Parts of Montana picked up feet of snow. There’s a chance that we get a foot of snow but I think more like 9 or 10 inches may do it.
The system is arriving just as I’m writing up this post on Friday afternoon. Snow is returning. It’s initially a weakening low pressure system moving into northern New York with a round of moderate snow for dinner time Friday. And then there might be a little lull as the low pressure center goes right over us Saturday morning with another burst of heavier snow by sunrise.
We have a very steep lapse rate on Saturday. That means it’s a lot colder up in the sky, that’s instability and that keeps it snowing. We should have a bit of a Jay Cloud with snow continuing into the last day. Temperatures high up in the clouds will be subzero, but down here at ground level, even at higher elevations, get well into the 20s. Wind is a tough one, it picks up again from the northwest later in the day.
Then as low pressure exits, it redevelops in Maine Saturday night and Sunday morning. There should be some more backlash snow. So I’d say on the front side through noon time Saturday we should pick up about 7 inches of snow and then on the backside we should get several more inches of snow so why don’t we just call it and even dozen. Yes ~ a foot of snow this weekend.
Then early next week, the train goes off the rails again in the weather department. There’s a massive blizzard from the central Plains to northern Michigan. A really powerful storm is going to drive into Ontario. The beginning of that storm may have a little bit of snow for us late Sunday, but then the wind and the rain are going to turn on.
Wind from the south on Sunday night and Monday may gust past 65 mph. We’re going to get some heavy downpours, looking a lot more like late April than mid March, with a chance of a thunderstorm Monday. The temperature on Monday warms into the 50s with a chance of more than a half inch of rain.
A polar front is coming in late Monday with rain changing to snow Monday night. Then an arctic front is going to cross over on Saint Patrick’s Day morning Tuesday. The temperature is going to go from the 40s to the 30s to the 20s to the teens to the single digits by Tuesday morning.
That’s a nasty refreeze, and it does not look like much snow on the backside of that, maybe just a couple of inches.
Arctic high pressure comes over us Tuesday to Wednesday with the temperature pretty close to 0° Tuesday Night and Wednesday morning before a rebound with snow returning late Wednesday.
We then have a series of clippers coming along on a strong flow from northwest to southeast with periods of snow continuing into early next weekend. It’s too early to make the call and how much. It doesn’t look huge. But at least it will whiten up the mountain again.
Certainly is a challenge trying to keep up with this weather.
Big shout out to mountain operations and everyone working so hard here to keep things moving.
Enjoy this weekend and we’ll talk again as the temperature plummets on St. Patrick’s Day.
Have a Guinness on me.
TK
