January 24th, 2025
Breaking news, this just into the newsroom...
There’s a slight chance it will not snow at Jay Peak resort on Saturday, January 25, 2025.
If that rumor verifies, it will be the first day this year without any fresh snow here at the resort.
But you know how rumors go. When you dig down you get to the truth. And the truth is that it snowed 24 days in a row.
And no matter how far you dig down I don’t think you can find the bottom.
And it’s not exactly digging, it’s more like swimming.
Swimming in snow!
That’s what we are doing here ~ swimming in snow ~ it has been so cold and flaky ~ it is bottomless powder right now in the backcountry.
Of course, so many locals know the lines, good luck finding your own!
That’s a challenge that I think we are all up for.
And if you like groomers. It’s mana.
We had some windy days this week, but nothing like the scouring wind of 10 days ago.
So mountain ops has been having a field day out there with this cold and dry air. Not to mention 3 to 5 inches of snow every other day.
Are you still thinking about the fact, it might not snow on our Saturday?
I was trying to distract you.
The only thing that I’m concerned about is that we have a little bit of a ridge to our south. That’s bringing in the drier air and subsidence. A couple of weeks ago something like that happened and we ended up with more wind than I had forecasted. So I think that’s the biggest challenge for the weekend, how much wind?
The weak upper level cold low that brought us that Friday morning snow is lifting out. And now there’s a bit of a warm front, cold front, arctic front waiting in the wings.
So our Saturday forecast is for high pressure to our south, low pressure to our north, the breeze picking up from the southwest with the temperature in the teens and probably still some diamond dust snow in the air. Can we count that as the 25th day in a row of snow?
I will if you will.
As the sun goes down on our Saturday, the next front is coming in and it is snowing Saturday night. Hopefully we can get a little accumulation before midnight and keep the streak going.
Sunday features a wave on an arctic front and guarantees more snow.
It’s an interesting dynamic, as it’s going to get a little bit warmer near the base of the mountain. Maybe even warmer than 25°. But it will be getting colder at the summit. That is instability. And there’s enough moisture and dynamics to generate a couple of inches of snow by Sunday afternoon. The wind will be shifting from south to northwest. That’s called surface convergence, also another reason to make it snow. Kind of tough to dress for. It’s going to get really cold at the summit by the end of the day. So I recommend the morning for Sunday play time.
Then mother nature is gonna turn on a power blizzard for us right here at Jay Peak Sunday night through Tuesday morning.
Very strong, low pressure and serious arctic air is going to cross the region.
We’re going to have snowfall rates in the order of 2 to 4 inches per hour at times later Monday through early Tuesday
The wind is going to gust maybe 50 or 60 miles an hour near the summit, especially later Monday, into early Tuesday.
It’s one of those storms that may be almost impossible to measure.
It looks like blower powder. A rough estimate would be about 23 inches of snow Monday into Tuesday.
The temperature doesn’t look too bad on Monday, maybe mid 20s. But the windchill will make up for it.
Temperature falls off a cliff Monday night and we’re around 0° Tuesday morning with wind gusting past 50 mph first thing in the morning.
The wind will slowly subside as the day goes on with the temperature, maybe, getting back up to about 10° as the snowfall winds down.
There'll be only a brief lull in the snow though. There’s another wave on the front coming at us Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Snow should fill back in Wednesday, along with more wind. So the pick of the week, for fresh snow combined with lighter wind is probably Wednesday morning ~ first thing ~ before the wind picks up again.
And what’s really interesting about Wednesday is the wind may actually be from the southeast with low pressure tracking just to our south.
We may tap the Atlantic ocean!
Not your average Jay Cloud. But whatever, that would be about the 29th day in a row of snow.
The early call for that one would be about another 10 inches or so.
More subzero air is probably coming in Thursday morning.
I’m hoping what I see is not actually going to happen. Because it could be 20° below zero by Thursday afternoon with brutal wind.
Somehow it will keep snowing too. Polar Vortex type ferocity.
Yet another wave on the Arctic boundary could come here on Friday.
So next week may end up being the snowiest week of the entire winter.
Can’t think of a better time for me to report for duty on site.
I’ll see you up there next week.
After that, we’re probably going to get a pattern shift with warmer air trying to come back up the east coast next weekend. It probably starts off fair and cold and we end up with some more precipitation by Groundhog Day.
It’s hard to believe all this is happening. But it is!
We’ll talk again on Tuesday, I’ll be writing that one from on campus.
See you at the Bullwheel.
-TK
